NP: John Cage, 4'33" (dub mix)

Not to dwell too much on the negative of what was, overall, a good night, but I paid something like $1.94 a gallon for unleaded regular last night. Now, I was willing to concede that stabilizing oil distribution in light of the problems going on in Venezuela was a valid reason in my "confluence of factors" rationale about the administration going into Iraq. So where the hell is my cheaper gas, dammit?

And would this be the case in a Nader administration? Obviously, that's the big political news of the day, and I've given it at least a passing glance. The quick read is that he doesn't feel terribly enthused about the current choices, particularly with regard to breaking the hold of special interests on our government. Between the lines, this seems like a fairly scathing indictment of John Kerry, who may be taking some body blows for alleged, perceived or actual pandering to donors throughout his Senate career.

It's too early to figure how this changes the game, seeing as how the game hasn't entirely started yet. Initially, if you were to make the claim that not much is different, voter-wise, than 2000, you could swap Kerry for Gore and divvy up Nader's votes according to second choice and likely get a different outcome. Things are different, though, with increasing reports that moderate Republicans and independents who voted for Bush in 2000 are leaning Democratic, which, in the absence of Nader, exacerbates that effect. Now you've got Nader in the race, but the stakes have changed dramatically.

For one, there's the bitter aftertaste of 2000 for Nader voters effectively giving Bush the win. This time around, you have to expect a significant chunk of those people will vote with their heads instead of their hearts. What's more, I have to wonder if in the current political climate, Nader might actually draw more from the GOP vote than from the eventual Democratic nominee. If he were to come out championing smaller government, in light of the current budget, it could throw the whole thing completely out of whack. Finally, you've got the Deaniacs. I'm not convinced they'll throw in behind the party in the show of unity Dems are hoping for, so they would be a likely constituency for Nader's indie effort. Which means that, if the notion that a lot of Dean's support came from those previously not engaged in the process, it might not even have much bearing on the presumtive Bush vs. Kerry race.

Then again, maybe this makes that race not so presumptive. If Nader starts screaming about special interests, it could give traction to those criticisms of Kerry, which could damage him going into Super Tuesday, and start an Edwards comeback that leads to the nomination.

I'm leaving out one notable possiblity, and that is that Nader does exactly what he did in 2000 and hurts the Democratic nominee, but come on. Been there, done that.

As with most things, the truth probably lies somewhere in between. Certainly, it will make for an interesting campaign season.