NP: John Cage, 4'33"

I've said before that I can't really get excited or energized about the upcoming battle over Social Security, but Kevin Drum draws (literally) a disturbing picture, charting out data from the Congressional Budget Office on the current plan versus what is assumed to be the new Bush plan.

The kink in the curve is right about 2050. If I don't go out in a blaze of glory, or twenty or thirty years after a blaze of glory, that puts me at 80 years old. Smack dab in the middle of my alleged Social Security benefits. Which will then either drop significantly or be well into a long trend downward.

My quick read of this is that the only way my benefits won't decrease considerably as I get older -- aside from becoming independently wealthy and/or prudent saving throughout the rest of my adult life (stop laughing!) -- is, surprisingly, Bush's plan. It looks about 80/20 odds that benefits will exceed the straight projection, and 50/50 at that point that it will be more than the current plan. The big money question, of course, is whether or not that volatility actually reflects the "Security" part of the moniker.

I don't think I necessarily have the readership to have an expert or two in the fold, but am I reading this wrong? I inherently don't trust Bush, so my inclination is that his idea of "reform" fucks me over. Is the real underlying issue the uncertainty? Or the notion that people are fundamentally stupid, and will make fundamentally stupid investments with the privatized portion? Or that this is all just one massive sop to the financial institutions and the fees they will collect as a result? Because on a strictly personal level, in the face of declining benefits, I could probably cope with the uncertainty.

Of course, the expansion of the deficit is another matter entirely, and where I'm much more likely to object.

Taking another crack at superficial analysis, the obvious solution is to make a point of being dead by 60 if Bush gets his way, or by 80 otherwise. Any volunteers for one of them blood pacts they do in the movies?