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March 15, 2005

Brackets, Damn Brackets, and Statistics

NP: Faith No More, This Is It: The Best of Faith No More

On the one hand, I barely watch NCAA basketball. On the other, office pools are fun! On that biologically improbably third hand, I stare at numbers for a living.

So I would be likely to enter an office pool -- if something of such dubious legality actually existed, of course -- with not so much a bunch of gut picks as I would a statistical model of some sort. Throw a bunch of team stats in, and dogmatically take the outcomes regardless of how unintuitive they may be.

The first iteration may need some work, as the Austin bracket defies statistical logic. UTEP-Vermont as the final just doesn't seem very likely. Although I'd be a shoo-in to win it all if I were, you know, right.

What's annoying is that I can't find point or rebound differential anywhere. As a former power forward/center, I'd love to enter a bracket somewhere based solely on rebound differential. I think adding winning percentage will help shake out some of the bugs.

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