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April 27, 2005

Methodology To This Madness

NP: Garbage, Bleed Like Me

From the Washington Post, via Slate's Today's Papers column, we hear that terrorist acts have more than tripled in 2004 over the previous year, which was a record. Sez them:

The administration aides sought to explain the rise in attacks as the result of more inclusive methodology in counting incidents, which they argued made year-to-year comparisons "increasingly problematic," sources said.

"Sought to explain" is the phrase that pays. I don't know if it's really a change in the government's methodology for counting incidents as much as it's a change in the terrorists' methodology of blowing more shit up. As someone who has done tracking studies, the mantra is typically "the absolute numbers might not be totally comparable, but directionally, the research still conveys the trend." Except they're not going to want to own up to that, either, because the trend isn't so good.

Plus, 2003 was still a record year with the old methodology.

There's just not a lot of wiggle room here, although I'm sure the media will let it slide on the "more inclusive counting" hack. They're awfully predictable on that sort of thing.

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