October 12, 2006
Perception and Small Sample Sizes
NP: Frank Zappa, Joe's Garage
Yes, I know, it's snowing here in Chicago. Yes, I know, it's still the first half of October.
Yes, I know that all the local media are going to act like we've never, ever seen snow before, and that they will all run stories about how this might be the coldest winter since time immemorial, with the emphasis not going anywhere near the word "might."
By the same token, the Bears have won their first five games and everyone is talking Super Bowl already. The Bulls won their first preseason game, and Sports Illustrated gave them the "team to beat" label months ago.
As a stats guy, it makes my head hurt when people insist on extrapolating from a single data point. The Bears thing is a little less of a stretch, and more of a reminder of just how much this is a Bears town over all else.
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