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January 26, 2008

Fun With South Carolina Exit Polls

NP: Emerson, Lake & Palmer, Tarkus

I'm stuck in the office on a Saturday waiting for long, drawn out data processes to finish now that I figured out where I went wrong, so what do I do for fun?

Look at more data, of course.

Poring over the CNN exit poll data, I see a couple of important things.

First, Obama won out 48% to 37% among voters who thought Bill Clinton's campaigning was either somewhat or very important. So on the one hand, Hillary did relatively better among those voters than she did at the overall level, but on the other, they still broke for Obama. The split between "somewhat" and "very" important is pretty fascinating, because "very" broke hard for Clinton, while "somewhat" was more in line with the overall results. Which is to say that there's certainly a sizable element of voters who were "somewhat" turned off by the former President's recent role. And those who are most passionate about Bill are also voting for Hillary. No surprise there, really.

And with all the talk about how the non-black vote would come in -- and while it's not teased out on this page, I've seen reports of 25% for Obama, up from the 10% I heard tossed around on the news yesterday -- I'm intrigued by the "non-black 18-29" segment, which Obama carried 52% to 28%. It's only 5% of the total, but I think there's something to the fact that it behaved so differently from the other age/race combinations.

I also love the thoroughness with which McClatchy describes February 5th as "a showdown between Obama, and Clinton in 22 states and American Samoa." I don't think there's been nearly enough discussion of how this primary plays out in American Samoa.

In other news, the iPod has served up Secret Machines, Tool, Yes and now Emerson, Lake & Palmer, which is making this much more tolerable. That and, again, figuring out why my data weren't behaving. Don't know that I would have been able to do that with other people in the office, or at least not as quickly, if you can call six hours "quick."

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