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March 05, 2008

Superdelegate Options

NP: John Cage, 4'33"

I'm way behind in reading all the various spins and interpretations of last night's primaries, but it's looking more and more like it will be pretty close all the way through to -- as MSNBC pointed out last night -- the final primary in Puerto Rico.

And if it's close, that means the superdelegates continue to dominate the story. But if you think about it, what can they really change? If, for example, Barack Obama has more pledged delegates at the end of the cycle, while Hillary Clinton has received more physical votes, nationwide, the superdelegates end up with exactly three options:

  • Vote for the candidate with the lead in the popular vote.
  • Vote for the candidate with the lead in pledged delegates.
  • Vote for the candidate to whom you have publicly committed yourself.

I don't see the superdelegates picking one of those choices disproportionately over any other, so at the end of the day, it looks like whoever has the most pledged delegates still wins. And if those conditions aren't true (i.e., the same candidate is leading both the popular vote and the delegate count), it's almost a non-issue.

Which makes the question of Michigan and Florida loom large, and also provide the biggest opportunity for really pissing some people off.

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