NP: The Cure, 4:13 Dream

Looks like Nate Silver was right on the money in his assessment of President Obama and what was needed of him in the health care debate. As someone who feels they instinctively "get" both Obama and Silver, I do have to wonder if spending quality time in the South Side enclave that is the University of Chicago affects one's world view in consistent ways.

That would explain why I have an affinity for (okay, more like a crush on) Ana Marie Cox, but on the other hand, wouldn't explain David Brooks.

Who I do not have a crush on, just for the record.

Back to Nate's bit, though. While I tend to agree with him, I think this is a dangerous metaphor for any Chicagoan:

To stretch this into a baseball analogy, this is not really a moment where Obama is being the "closer" and protecting a lead. It's more like the Democrats are down 5-4 in the bottom of the ninth, but with ample opportunity to turn the game around because they have the bases loaded and their cleanup hitter, Obama, at the plate. If he strikes out, he strikes out -- and it's probably finito for substantive health care reform. But at long last he'll be swinging for the fences, and this is a moment that should play to nearly all of Obama's strengths.

Seeing as how both President Obama and Nate Silver are at least nominally from Chicago, and seeing as how the Cubs and the White Sox arguably had a worse August than the White House, I'm not sure if the baseball analogy is the best idea here.

The better comparison may be that the situation is like the Chicago Bulls being down about ten points going into the fourth quarter. Now, I'm going to hedge this a bit by not saying which era of the Chicago Bulls we're talking about, because there are at least three different outcomes that fit the model. First, we could get the Michael Jordan-era dominance that puts the game away convincingly. Second, we could get Ben Gordon forcing bad shots early and often, and ultimately coming up short. Or we could get one of the more egalitarian efforts of the Scott Skiles/Vinny Del Negro era, where everybody pitched in and eked out the win with someone like John Salmons (played by Olympia Snowe?) stepping up. That's probably the version where health care reform gets passed, but without the public option.

So, I guess what we're going to find out in the next couple of weeks is whether or not Obama is Jordan or Gordon, or someone in between. I'm not sure who embodies that third option, but Derrick Rose might work well given his relative inexperience.