NP: Yes, 90125

I was initially struck by the findings of this poll -- that 40% of respondents "see the Tea Party in a favorable light." With regard to the Tea Party, I have no doubt about the strength of their convictions. I can fret about how they got there, but they're very much there at this point. What I'm really, really curious about is just how many of these folks are out there, and how disproportionate the coverage of this segment of the voting population might actually be.

My quick read was probably the same one the folks at the Christian Science Monitor were hoping for when they wrote the headline. "2 out of 5 people are in the Tea Party? I'm moving to Canada!" It's also totally wrong. The question wasn't "do you consider yourself a member of the Tea Party?" or "do you intend to vote for the Tea Party candidate?" In consumer research, it's brand favorability versus brand purchase, or even brand preference. Which is designed specifically to cast a wider net.

So, the correct reading of this is probably that the absolute upper bound for the Tea Party is 40% -- in the unlikely event that everyone who "sympathizes" with the party is in the party, and will vote for the party -- but the party itself is smaller than that. Everything still seems to point to half that size at best, but that's on average. Some regions would obviously be more, um, dense.

Either way, if you take the findings as 40% of your potential audience is interested in this topic -- and those that don't sympathize with the movement may actually be interested in the topic for other reasons, at least if Keith Olbermann is any indication -- then the take-home message is that maybe all the coverage is justified. Which may be as scary as my first take on it.