A Big If, Online Music Edition

NME is citing the Independent in saying that European online music company Spotify could launch in the U.S. any day now. Apparently, they've got deals with two of the four majors, and as the story goes:

According to the Independent, if the company can ink a deal with one more label, then the launch of the service in the country could be imminent.

Emphasis, again, is mine. The first problem is that two labels saying yes, historically, has not ever really been a good indicator that any other labels will sign on. Bluematter, anyone? Pressplay? The other issue, as those two examples that hardly anyone remembers acutely raises for those who do, is that even with three major labels on board, success is hardly assured. Yes, iTunes did fine without EMI for quite a while, but that seems more the exception that proves the rule.

The one difference I'll grant is that a fair number of those failed efforts came directly from the major labels themselves, which meant that others may not have joined on because they had a competitive effort, and didn't want their competitors to succeed at their expense. Sony, I'm looking at you. But a third party? It might work, but I still think they need everybody on board. So right now, I'm still skeptical that we'll see anything more than a continuing stream of articles on how Spotify is coming.