The Last-Minute 2004 Preview

It's less than four hours until the DC-San Jose kickoff. I'm thinking maybe it's time to talk a little about this season.

Chicago Fire. Can the Fire repeat last year's unexpected success? The conventional wisdom is saying no, that the Eastern Conference has improved significantly, and the loss of GK Zach Thornton and D Carlos Bocanegra will be too much. Of course, the conventional wisdom also had the Fire missing the playoffs last year. Reigning Coach of the Year Dave Sarachan has a strong, young squad that is growing together as a unit, and another strong draft will only help. Defense is still an issue, and depth is going to be important when several key players get called away for National Team duty. Look for Justin Mapp, Nate Jaqua and Dipsy Selolwane to come through in the clutch.

Colorado Rapids. I'm not quite sure how to figure the Rapids this year. Their offseason moves seem solid but unspectacular. John Spencer, Mark Chunk and Chris Henderson, the golden trio of the squad, are getting older, and their backline looks a little suspect once you get past second-year man Nat Borchers. Defensive midfielder Pablo Mastroenni is apparently moving back to help matters, but again, the defense looks weak. New acquisitions from Haiti, Mexico and Honduras, along with current internationals from Liberia and England give the Rapids a very broad cast of characters, but whether embattled coach Tim Hankinson can get them to play together effectively is the biggest question mark.

Columbus Crew. To their credit, the Crew went a long way to shore up their biggest problem from last year, and that's defense. A completely revamped backline and a solid defensive midfielder in Simon Elliot could help tremendously IF rookies Chris Wingert and Chad Marshall are the real deal, and Robin Fraser and Elliot aren't past their prime. Losing F Brian McBride may actually help break the logjam up front, as Crew forwards last year had this habit of literally bumping into each other. At the end of the day, Greg Andrulis has been stunningly unsuccessful at translating a strong team on paper into a consistent force on the field, so as long as he's in charge, the Crew will struggle. The question may be how long he's in charge.

Dallas Burn. Like the Crew, the Burn have massively overhauled their defense, which will now be anchored by Steve Jolley and Cory Gibbs. While that will stop the bleeding, the team is going to live or die by how well F Jason Kreis and M Ronnie O'Brien come back from long-term injuries. If they struggle, it may be up to F Toni Nhlecko and M Ramon Nunez, acquired last year and this year, respectively, to pick up the slack. A lot of eyes are on young forward Ed Johnson as well, but his goal-scoring exploits with the US youth squad last year seemed overly selfish to me, and I don't imagine that will translate well in a team game over thirty matches.

D.C. United. The most important question facing United is not whether or not Freddy Adu plays, but whether or not Bobby Convey rises to the occasion of running the midfield. Rookie coach Peter Nowak is hoping it will happen, and from the midfield on forward, the team looks awfully loaded. Scoring goals may not be a problem, especially if the new-found sense of unity energizes Earnie Stewart to play like everyone knows he's capable of. However, I have to wonder about any defense built mostly around the vastly overrated Mike Petke. One of United's big problems last year, like the Galaxy in the West, wasn't giving up a lot of goals as much as it was giving up entirely the wrong goals, and I don't see that they've done anything to fix that problem.

Kansas City Wizards. The Wizards didn't do much in the offseason, except lose Preki and Igor Simutenkov to injury. With so much of the scoring pressure falling on Josh Wolff in the early going, Bob Gansler's squad will likely struggle in the early going. Then again, "struggle" for a Gansler side typically means tie instead of lose, so they may be well-positioned for a late run when those injured players return. Unless Wolff and M Chris Klein figure heavily into World Cup qualifying, in which case they may be in deeper trouble. GK Tony Meola also needs to stop the downward slide he started midway through last season if the team is going to succeed.

Los Angeles Galaxy. In a lot of ways, the Galaxy were just snakebitten by a long road trip to start the season last year, and never quite recovered. Of course, that may have also had something to do with some structural deficiencies. Losing D Alexi Lalas to the San Jose front office may settle the defensive situation somewhat, as coach Sigi Schmid largely failed in trying to find creative ways to get him, Danny Califf and Hony Myung-Bo all on the field at the same time. The team has a lot of defenders on their roster, though, so finding a cohesive unit may still take time. Up front, I expect F Jovan Kirovski to prove why he was able to ply his trade in Europe for so long, simultaneously taking pressure off of Carlos Ruiz while setting him up to score. This duo is going to be very dangerous, especially if M Andreas Herzog can contribute behind them.

Metrostars. Bob Bradley very quietly added a ton of firepower to replace M/F Clint Mathis, so scoring goals likely won't be a problem. The acquisition of M Joselito Vaca could be huge, as the Metrostars were sorely lacking quality wing midfielders. They were also lacking outside defenders, and they still are. Bradley is counting perhaps too heavily on Chris Leitch and Craig Ziadie, and that may prove to be an Achilles' Heel for the team, particularly when Eddie Pope is off with the National Team.

New England Revolution. Very little has changed for this squad, in terms of player movement. If their forwards can stay healthy, the team is loaded with potential goal-scorers, and M Jose Cancela should play like a kid in a candy store picking which guy to set up from the midfield. With D Carlos Llamosa blowing out his knee in preseason, though, a defense that already relies too heavily on the likes of Joey Franchino and Jay Heaps playing over their heads is going to be under considerable pressure, and while I like D Daouda Kante, I like him a lot better when he's next to Llamosa. F Taylor Twellman's inability to catch on with the National Team may be the biggest plus for Steve Nicol's side going forward, as they're likely going to need every goal the youngster can score.

San Jose Earthquakes. As of late, M/F and former MLS poster boy (thank you, Freddy!) Landon Donovan has been looking a little ragged, and so much of San Jose's success depends on his being in form. Factor in some projected absences for World Cup qualifying, and the defending champs could have some trouble building their offense. Finishing isn't an issue, as a healthy Brian Ching and Dwayne DeRosario will be able to score in bunches. If they get the service, and that depends on Donovan. M Brian Mullan and M Richard Mulrooney may have to pick up some slack if Landon can't produce.

PICKS

The only thing I feel confident of is that L.A. will win the west. The rest is admittedly a crapshoot, but here goes:

Eastern Conference
Chicago
Metrostars
Columbus
D.C. United
New England

Western Conference
L.A. Galaxy
San Jose Earthquakes
Colorado Rapids
Kansas City Wizards
Dallas Burn