On The Bubble

Okay, with a week or so before the expansion draft, I need to make my predictions on who stays and who goes for the 2005 Fire season. The rules: 12 senior roster players protected, only one Senior International left unprotected. There are some rumors of changes to the rules, but nothing concrete yet.

Given that, some of this is easy. The one unprotected Senior International has to be Dipsy Selolwane. As of right now, there are five forwards on the roster. Four of them are better than the Dip. I suppose there's a slim chance they could protect Dipsy and offer up Andy Williams, but I don't see it.

Obviously, at least one goalkeeper will be unprotected. DJ Countess to Real (excuse me, ReAL) Salt Lake seems to be a no-brainer, but the question is whether or not that happens through the draft or through a trade. Expansion is more likely, I think. The remaining question is whether or not the Fire leave two goalies unprotected. My gut is telling me that Zach is back, but a lot of that is based on the desperate need for veteran leadership on the team, which is just my take on things. Which will be expanded upon soon on the official site.

The goalie situation highlights a key unknown to this whole shebang, and that's the status of P-40 and developmental players. For the latter, I'm not sure of the precedent for returning players maintaining developmental status. Matt Pickens is almost certainly still developing. Denny Clanton and Leonard Griffin, maybe not so much.

P-40 is going to be a bitch, though. In an ideal world, all three maintain their status, but I'm going to guess that Countess and Nate Jaqua graduate from the program. Jaqua is then likely to be unprotected just from a numbers perspective. You can't realistically protect more than three forwards, and the alternative is bluffing with Ante Razov, on the notion that nobody wants his high salary and he won't renegotiate. Unless the team is looking to unload his salary anyway and is willing to bet on the two-game promise of Andy Herron for a season where he'll likely be called away on national team duty.

So far, we've got Selolwane, Countess and Jaqua out, and maybe Henry Ring. You've got to figure that Orlando Perez won't be protected, as he was seriously outmatched too many times last season. Personally, I would not be sad to see Kelly Gray go, but I don't know if management shares my assessment. It comes down to the fact that he has not made a strong case for a consistent starting role on the team. As a byproduct of his utility-man status, I think he's too comfortable just playing wherever the coach wants him to from game to game, rather than forcing the issue by dominating at one position. That makes him expendable, at least to expansion.

I also figure we don't need two young defensive midfielders, but it's really a toss-up to me between Scott Beute and Logan Pause. Beute is a little bigger, but if the numbers don't add up, both could be left unprotected.

So far the list of protected players, by process of elimination, is:

Denny Clanton DEV
Leonard Griffin DEV
Matt Pickens DEV
Craig Capano P-40

Chris Armas
Alexandre Boucicaut
C.J. Brown
Scott Buete
Jim Curtin
Andy Herron
Justin Mapp
Jesse Marsch
Damani Ralph
Ante Razov
Zach Thornton
Evan Whitfield
Andy Williams

That's 13 protected players right there, so there's not too much further to go. Odd man out could be Evan Whitfield here, because if the Samuel Cabellero signing comes through, CJ Brown moves back to the right side of the defense and Whitfield is bumped off the starting 3-man backline. However, seeing as how Alexandre Boucicaut never quite found his spot on the team, it's possible Bucky could go and Whitfield could move up into the midfield.

From there, the only issue is whether or not Capano graduates from P-40, because if Clanton and Griffin change their status, they haven't made enough of a stamp on the squad yet to make them indispensable. If Capano stays P-40, it's either Whitfield or Boucicaut. If he's a senior roster player, I wouldn't be surprised if it's both, or one of them and Scott Beute.

So, finally, your protected expansion draft players:

Chris Armas
C.J. Brown
Scott Buete
Craig Capano
Jim Curtin
Andy Herron
Justin Mapp
Jesse Marsch
Damani Ralph
Ante Razov
Zach Thornton
Andy Williams

With either Boucicaut or Whitfield back on the list if Capano is exempt, and a slight chance Razov doesn't make the cut, which brings back the other of those two or Nate Jaqua.

I reserve the right to be totally wrong, but I think this might be pretty close.