Crossing The Line

I'm trying to avoid getting too tangled up in the inevitable coaching deathwatch among Fire fandom right now, mostly because it's startlingly premature. That said, the Fire have not showed much in the way of dominance, or the potential for dominance, through five matches. Two one-goal victories, a draw, and two losses where they were unable to score, while enough for second in the East with a game or two in hand, is neither attractive nor inspiring.

It's just not enough to justify firing a coach, either.

The good news is that the schedule seems pretty uniquely suited to having a conclusive answer to the coaching question by the end of May. Let's take a walk through it.

April 30th at Columbus. So far, they've been really streaky, and nowhere more so than the vaunted striker combination of Edson Buddle and Ante Razov. The Fire have historically dominated the Crew in Columbus, and if our defense is as good as we think it is, anything less than a draw is not going to bode well, even if I don't think it would be enough to warrant pulling the trigger. Moreso when you consider how this is a test of mettle after a disappointing loss.

May 7th at New England. After the drubbing at home, a point out of this one would be a major victory, but a loss is only a big strike if we don't get a result in Columbus. Two more consecutive losses, unless there are extenuating circumstances, may be enough to make DC assistant coach Tommy Soehn consider more anytime minutes for his cellphone plan sooner rather than later.

At this point, figure two draws is enough to move Sarachan on to the next round. A draw and a loss and, to quote Mr. Zappa, I figure the odds be fifty-fifty.

May 14th vs. Metrostars. This is simply a must-win, especially if Metro continues to look as dire as they have so far. The only exception is if the Fire are able to take home four points out of the Columbus and New England matches. So, through three matches, three points or less should be the end of the line. Four points looks bad, but not fatal. Five points moves precipitously on to the next round, and six points or more bodes well for the 'Chan.

May 21st vs. Colorado. Assuming the hot seat is still hot -- which is to say, only four or five points through three matches -- this one follows the familiar pattern. A win and he stays, a loss and he goes, give him a draw and nobody knows.

May 28th at Real Salt Lake. A draw on the road is generally good, but a draw on the road against a struggling expansion team isn't, at least in the face of a string of middling results.

May 31st at Metrostars. This is the end of the line. If the team has only gotten between five and seven points from the previous five matches, this becomes win or go home.

So, to sum up, the "Sarachan Line" is the absolute minimum of points necessary after each of the next six games for Dave Sarachan to keep his job. It's roughly the line described by a .500 record over those matches, but not exactly. If he stays at .500, it's a judgement call. I haven't totally vetted the math and the possible combinations, but this more or less defines the curve:

May 7th (2 matches): One point
May 14th (3 matches): Four points
May 21st (4 matches): Five points
May 28th (5 matches): Seven points
May 31st (6 matches): Ten points

Ten points from six matches implies at least two wins, if not three, which puts the Fire in decent shape through the first two months of the season.

The other factor is goals scored, but the handy way to incorporate that is, if the team is on the bubble, as defined here, an average of 1 goal per game or less puts them under, and takes Dave down as well.