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April 06, 2007

Defense Wins Championships

I guess I have to go on record with something before the season starts.

I'm not terribly confident with these picks. A lot of teams have what I consider to be fatal flaws. And then I don't know how the USMNT callups will affect the balance of power.

Eastern Conference
1. FIRE. Why? Because our biggest, possibly our only problem is where the goals will come from, and I think we actually have the firepower, we just don't trust it yet. Defense is arguably the best in the East. We may stumble during the summer tourneys, though, as Mapp and Rolfe may miss significant time.
2. New England. I don't like their defense, but apparently they're effective. There's going to be a lot of pressure on Dorman and Ralston to get balls in to Twellman, but I think there will be too much pressure on too few attacking options, as Noonan won't get his form back.
3. DC United. They're loaded in front, but after Bobby Boswell, their backline looks more than a little suspect. DCU fans like to point to Namoff and Carroll as USMNT-quality d-mids, but only if the players go on stike again. If I'm wrong, it's only because they won a bunch of matches 4-3.
4. Toronto. They've got the same problem with a young, no-name defense that RSL had whenever Pope wasn't around, but I think they'll fix that -- especially if they moved Cancela to make room for Jacek Bak -- before they get in too big a hole.
5. New York. Their midfield looks really good. Unfortunately the rest of the lineup kind of sucks.
6. Kansas City. Too much of their success lives and dies with whether or not EJ can wake the fuck up. Backline is solid, but lacking the kind of support they need from the midfield.
7. Columbus. Andy Herron is not the answer.

Western Conference.
1. Houston. I have a hard time finding a flaw in this team's starting lineup.
2. Los Angeles. Nate gets hot early, which frees up Donovan later on, then it's Nate again when Becks gets here.
3. Chivas USA. A lot is going to ride on some aging central defenders, but I think they can handle it.
4. Real Salt Lake. Not because of Freddie, because of Mehdi.
5. Colorado. They seem to be up to something, and Cancela may have something to prove after getting left behind in New England, but Jovan Kirovski and Herculez Gomez will combine for six goals if they're lucky.
6. Dallas. Gave away way too much talent in the offseason.

Playoffs
Under the new system, five teams will go from the east. Houston wins MLS Cup over the Fire, unless they get decimated by injury.

Fire win the USOC, because we're really, really deep again.

Mapp is a finalist for MVP, loses to DeRosario.

If I'm wrong, and the Fire tank early, Denis Hamlett finishes the season as interim head coach and is replaced by Head Coach John Trask and assistant Frank Klopas next year.

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