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January 03, 2008

That Certain Something

When discussing former Fire midfielder Ivan Guerrero, I think a lot of fans found it difficult to put their finger on what it was about his game that made him so valuable. He wasn't exactly an offensive terror, nor was he a destroyer in the middle of the park. And yet he obviously brought something to the game. According to Jeff Carlisle at ESPN.com, Billy Beane measured it, which helped new Earthquakes coach Frank Yallop and GM John Doyle pull the trigger in the expansion draft:

"You have a feeling about a player, and then you see how those feelings were backed up by data," Doyle said. "I think it was very useful to us to have that at our fingertips."

Yallop added that in the case of midfielder Ivan Guerrero, the information supplied played a part in his selection.

"We looked at [Guerrero's] stats and saw that he's was one of the best in possession in the league," said Yallop during the team's expansion draft announcement. "Getting the ball and keeping the ball is important, and Ivan does that."

On the one hand, soccer fans -- and, to be fair, the Quakes' coaches -- knew instinctively that Guerrero was a worthwhile investment. Fire fans all but assumed he'd be taken as soon as the list of protected players hit the Internet. So the incremental benefit of the additional statistics might not be all that great. Which isn't to say that figuring out just what those seemingly "intangible" qualities are isn't an interesting subject. It's just not clear how it would be operationalized, outside of fantasy leagues.

Comments

The problem is that if you say "statistical analysis" to a soccerhead, they more often than not look at you like they're Zidane and you're Marco Materazzi.

Soccer is much more a game of "feel" to most serious observers of it than it is one of numbers, and so numbers make them uncomfortable.

It's in trying to actually quantify some of the things that you can TELL about a soccer team or a player that you run into resistance. I wish that wasn't so - we're trying to INCREASE our knowledge and make decisions and evaluations. We're not trying to turn soccer into baseball, which is what I think many soccer people are afraid of.

Those of us who watched Ivan for three years knew he was a useful, quality player even if we couldn't adequately describe exactly what it was he brought to the table. It thought in 2005 that he was far and away the team's best player, and probably its best-ever international signing to that point. Professional. Skilled, but not flashy. You wanted the guy on the field.

He wasn't himself in 2007, even before the injury. I'm hopeful he'll be a productive layer in San Jose because he's a quality guy.

Or a productive "player," even.

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