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February 14, 2009

Relative Value

I've been watching this Beckham saga unfold, and it strikes me as one of those things where an irresistible story meets clueless reporting meets unrealistic expectations. As of right now, it appears Becks will not be transferring to AC Milan, after the Italian club was unable to come up with an offer for his services that MLS and the LA Galaxy found acceptable. Ives poses the following question:

Admit it, you never thought that would be the outcome of this situation, did you?

Actually, yes, I did. If you look at the numbers thrown around as the story developed, AC Milan offered something like $10 million for Beckham, to which MLS said something around $22 million. Which Milan wouldn't go near. The easy -- and, I think, appropriate -- interpretation is that David Beckham is worth more than twice as much to Los Angeles and to MLS as he does to AC Milan.

This is not at all surprising. Nor is it surprising that Beckham found he could still contribute at the level of Serie A and wanted to stay there. The way that everyone is acting like this is somehow unprecedented, or that it makes some grand statement about MLS seems absurd to me. Beckham was quoted last week as saying that MLS is maybe five years away from having their shit together. Didn't he actually say something similar when he was signed, only adding that he was looking forward to being a part of it? I actually think Cuauhtemoc Blanco said something similar as well, but local sports writers are lauding Blanco for his loyalty while making Beckham out to be a villain for recognizing he can still cut it for one of the best clubs in the world.

Does this make Beckham in MLS a failure? Does it make MLS a failure? The latter is unlikely. This isn't Lothar Mattheus, chapter 2 (although I suspect there are actually more chapters than that). On the former, I'll agree with some of the opinion pieces that pointed out how the Galaxy still haven't been able to make the playoffs, even with Becks, but if you look at the teams the Galaxy have built around the nucleus of Beckham and Donovan, I don't think you can hang it entirely on either of those two. Put simply, if you have the chance to play with Kaka and Seedorf instead of Landon Donovan and Sean Franklin, you take it.

The bigger question is whether or now LA knew they would lose either Beckham or Donovan, and that this signals that they won't be as difficult if Bayern Munich makes an offer for the American striker. Landon's relative worth here versus across the pond is a totally different calculus.

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