Mocking the Expansion Draft

Ives has already taken a stab at tomorrow's expansion draft, and while that's sort of his role as one of the pre-eminent soccer bloggers in the U.S., I think he's way off base.

Then again, there are at least three different ideologies you can take into this sort of exercise, and we don't know which one Peter Nowak will adopt. You can draft by position -- using ten picks with starting roles in mind. You can draft by "best players available." Or you can draft by value.

Ives is mostly going with the middle approach, seeing as how he didn't pick a goalkeeper. And his ten picks eat up $1.3 million in guaranteed salary, based on 2009 guaranteed compensation.

I look at this both in terms of position and value, so I'm going to take a stab at ten players that could form a decent starting lineup. Even then, there are some tradeoffs that make it tough to predict what will happen.

Goalkeeper
This one is tricky, if only because Josh Saunders made a surprise appearance in the MLS Cup match. If you're going for value, it's likely between him, Josh Wicks and Andy Gruenebaum. Except that choosing Saunders means you can't take Todd Dunivant. If you're going for the best available, I'd still probably skip Pat Onstad for being too old, and go with Kevin Hartman. After much consideration, I'm going to let Dunivant go, and take Josh Saunders.

Unless, of course, we get a Reading reunion, and Marcus Hahneman comes back to MLS after sitting on the bench at Wolverhampton for most of the season.

Defenders
Houston will almost certainly lose a central defender to Philly, with Eddie Robinson, Craig Waibel and Ryan Cochrane all available. I like Eddie Robinson, but he only played 30 minutes last season, and Craig Waibel is cheaper. As for a second central defender, nobody really jumps out, but I'm coming around to the idea of a homecoming for Jim Curtin, although he's had injury problems lately. Matt Besler from Kansas City might be an option.

The best left back available, if you assume Gonzalo Segares leaves for Europe, is Todd Dunivant. I'd take him over Frankie Hejduk any day of the week. Of course, the rest of my picks mean I can't have either of them, so I think the Fire will lose Daniel Woolard. Real Salt Lake's Robbie Russell seems to be the prohibitive favorite for right back.

Midfielders
I could see maybe going for Guevara and Marsch together in the central midfield, but while Guevara was good this past season, he's been streaky in the past, and will miss time for the World Cup. I love Jesse Marsch to death, and he played with Nowak, and went to nearby Princeton, but coming off a concussion, I'm not convinced he's worth the risk. Also, I want him to retire and come to coach Chicago. At best, I could see one or the other, but not both. Sorry, Ives.

I'm warming up to the idea of Guevara, though, and then the question is, who do you pair with him? One of the more underrated central midfielders available is probably Sinisa Ubiparapovic from New York. Or maybe expansion draft veteran Stephen King, who was picked by Seattle last year.

Left wing will be Bobby Convey, as I have a sense of a gentleman's agreement somewhere to let him play in front of a hometown crowd. That means Chicago's Mike Banner is probably safe unless Nowak stockpiles good players independent of position, and doesn't pick Woolard at left back. On the right, I don't know if Dallas is daring Philly to pick Dave van den Bergh, but he's the best available on that side. He's also expensive, so I think the "value" pick would be Jacob Peterson from Colorado, assuming his late-season injury isn't a concern.

Forwards
That only leaves one pick for forward. I would say spend the money on Luciano Emilio, but he's a Designated Player, and I don't know that you'd want to use that slot on him and sacrifice the big splash you could make by signing someone new to the league. Plus, he's coming off a bad year. If you can halve his salary, though, do it.

If not, that leaves Ante Razov as the next-best choice, if you think he can recover from a season where he didn't play a single minute due to injury. Or, as much as I don't like him as a player, Alejandro Moreno from Columbus, which means I have to revise my original goalkeeper pick.

So there you have it. I only save about $150K over Ives' picks, so maybe the financial criticism was unwarranted. And I may be willing to bet that I get more picks right than Ives does, although I don't know how much I'd put down on it.